Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis helps identify trading opportunities using actions of Market Participants through charts, patterns, and indicators.
The Chart Types
We explore the different chart types used in technical analysis along with its merits and de merits. Specifically we discuss the candlestick chart and why traders prefer candlesticks over bar charts.
Japanese Candlesticks
Time Frame | Open | High | Low | Close | No of Candles |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monthly | The opening price on the first day of the month | Highest price at which the stock traded during the entire month | Lowest price at which the stock traded during the entire month | The closing price on the last day of month | 12 candles for the entire year |
Weekly | Monday’s opening price | Highest price at which the stock traded during the entire week | Lowest price at which the stock traded during the entire week | The closing price on Friday | 52 candles for the entire year |
Daily or EOD | Opening price of the day | Highest price at which the stock traded during the day | Lowest price at which the stock traded during the day | The closing price of the day | One candle per day, 252 candles for the entire year |
Intraday 30 minutes | The opening price at the beginning of the 1st minute | Highest price at which the stock traded during the 30 minute duration | Lowest price at which the stock traded during the 30 minute duration | The closing price as on the 30th minute | Approximately 12 candles per day |
Intraday 15 minutes | The opening price at the beginning of the 1st minute | Highest price at which the stock traded during the 15 minute duration | Lowest price at which the stock traded during the 15 minute duration | The closing price as on the 15th minute | 25 candles per day |
Intraday 5 minutes | The opening price at the beginning of the 1st minute | Highest price at which the stock traded during the 5 minute duration | Lowest price at which the stock traded during the 5minute duration | The closing price as on the 5th minute | 75 candles per day |
- There are two types of candlesticks -- Bullish candle and Bearish candle. The structure of the candlestick however remains the same
- When close > open = It is a Bullish candle. When close < open = It is a Bearish candle
Getting Started with Candlesticks
Basic concepts on various candlestick patterns used by traders to make decisions on the market. We also discuss the basic classification of candlestick patterns
The candlesticks are used to identify trading patterns. Patterns in turn help the technical analyst to set up a trade. The patterns are formed by grouping two or more candles in a certain sequence. However, sometimes powerful trading signals can be identified by just single candlestick pattern.
Hence, candlesticks can be broken down into single candlestick pattern and multiple candlestick patterns.
Single Candlestick Patterns
Doji - Indecisive
Hammer candle - Bullish
Shooting star - Bearish
1. Marubozu (bald)
- Bullish Marubozu
- Bearish Marubozu
- Remember the rules based on which candlesticks work
- Marubuzo is the only pattern which violates rule number 3 i.e Look for prior trend
- A bullish marubuzo indicates bullishness
- Buy around the closing price of a bullish marubozu
- Keep the low of the marubuzo as the stoploss
- A bearish marubuzo indicates bearishness
- Sell around the closing price of a bearish marubozu
- Keep the high of the marubuzo as the stoploss
- An aggressive trader can place the trade on the same day as the pattern forms
- Risk averse traders can place the trade on the next day after ensuring that it obeys rule number 1 i.e Buy strength, and Sell weakness
- An abnormal candle lengths should not be traded
- Short candle indicates subdued activity
- Long candle indicates extreme activity, however placing stoploss becomes an issue.
2. Doji
In Japanese, Doji means blunder or mistake
3. Spinning Tops
- A spinning top has a small real body. The upper and lower shadows are almost equal in length
- The colour of the spinning top does not matter. What matters is the fact that the open and close prices are very close to each other
- Spinning tops conveys indecision in the market with both bulls and bears being in equal control
- Spinning top at the top end of the rally indicates that either the bulls are taking a pause before they can resume the uptrend further or the bears are preparing to break the trend. In either case, the trader's stance has to be cautious. If the trader's intent is to buy, he is better off buying only half the quantity and he should wait for the markets to move in his direction
- Spinning top at the bottom end of the rally indicates that either the bears are taking a pause before they can resume the down trend further or the bulls are preparing to break the trend and take the markets higher. Either case, the trader's stance has to be cautious. If the traders intent is to buy, he is better off buying only half the quantity and he should wait for the markets to make the move
- Doji's are very similar to spinning tops. Doji also convey indecision in the market. By definition dojis do not have a real body. However in reality, even if a wafer thin body appears it is acceptable
- A trader's stance based on dojis is similar to stance taken when a spinning top occurs.
4. Paper umbrella
- Hammer
- Hanging man
5. Shooting star
- A paper umbrella has a long lower shadow and a small real body. The lower shadow and the real body should maintain the 'shadow to real body' ratio. In case of the paper umbrella the lower shadow should be at least twice the length of the real body
- Since the open and close prices are close to each other, the color of the paper umbrella should not matter
- If a paper umbrella appears at the bottom of a down trend, it is called the 'hammer'
- If the paper umbrella appears at the top end of an uptrend, it is called the hanging man
- The hammer is a bullish pattern and one should look at buying opportunities when it appears
- The low of the hammer acts as the stop loss price trade
- The hanging man is a bearish pattern which appears at the top end of the trend, one should look at selling opportunities when it appears
- The high of the hanging man acts as the stop loss price for the trade
- The shooting star is a bearish pattern which appears at the top end of the trend. One should look at shorting opportunities when a shooting star appears
- The high of the shooting star will be the stop loss price for the trade.
Multiple candlestick patterns are a combination of multiple candles.
Multiple Candlestick Patterns
- Engulfing pattern
- Bullish Engulfing
- Bearish Engulfing
- Harami
- Bullish Harami
- Bearish Harami
- Piercing Pattern
- Dark cloud cover
- Morning Star
- Evening Star - It is a bearish candlestick pattern and is formed at the end of an uptrend
Pattern Analysis
- Multiple candlestick patterns evolve over two or more trading days
- The bullish engulfing pattern evolves over two trading days. It appears at the bottom end of downtrend. Day one is called P1 and day 2 is called P2
- In a bullish engulfing pattern, P1 is a red candle, and P2 is a blue candle. P2's blue candle completely engulfs P1;s red candle
- A risk taker initiates a long trade at the close of P2 after ensuring P1 and P2 together form a bullish engulfing pattern. A risk averse trader will initiate the trade the day after P2, near the close of the day
- The stoploss for the bullish engulfing pattern is the lowest low between P1 and P2
- The bearish engulfing pattern appears at the top end of an uptrend. P1's blue candle is completely engulfed by P2's red candle
- A risk taker initiates a short trade at the close of P2 after ensuring P1 and P2 together form a bearish engulfing pattern. The risk averse trader will initiate the trade the day after P2, after confirming the day forms a red candle
- The highest high of P1 and P2 forms the stoploss for a bearish engulfing pattern
- The presence of a doji after an engulfing pattern tends to catalyze the pattern's evolution.
- The piercing pattern works very similar to bullish engulfing pattern, except that P2's blue candle engulfs at least 50% and below 100% of P1's red candle
- The dark cloud cover works similar to the bearish engulfing pattern, except that P2's red candle engulfs at least 50% and below 100% of P1's blue candle.
Pattern Analysis
- The harami pattern evolves over 2 trading sessions -- P1 and P2.
- Day 1 (P1) of the pattern forms a long candle and day 2(P2) of the pattern forms a small candle which appears as if it has been tucked inside the P1's long candle
- A bullish harami candle pattern is formed at the lower end of a down trend. P1 is a long red candle, and P2 is a small blue candle. The idea is to initiate a long trade near the close of P2 (risk taker). A risk averse trader will initiate the long trade near the close of the day after P2 only after ensuring it forms a blue candle day
- The stop loss on a bullish harami pattern is the lowest low price between P1 and P2
- The bearish harami pattern is formed at the top end of an uptrend. P1 is a long blue candle, and P2 is a small red candle. The idea is to initiate a short trade near the close of P2 (risk taker). The risk averse will initiate the short near the close of the day only after ensuring it is a red candle day
- The stop loss on a bearish harami pattern is the highest high price between P1 and P2.
Pattern Analysis
- Price Gaps - Gap up opening, Gap down opening
- Star formation occurs over three trading sessions. The candle of P2 is usually a doji or a spinning top
- If there is a doji on P2 in a star pattern, it is called a doji star (morning doji star, evening doji star) else it is just called the star pattern (morning star, evening star)
- Morning star is a bullish pattern which occurs at the bottom end of the trend. The idea is to go long on P3 with the lowest low of the pattern being the stop loss for the trade
- Evening star is a bearish pattern, which occurs at the top end of an up trend. The idea is to go short on P3, with the highest high of the pattern acting as a stop loss
- The star formation evolves over a 3 days period, hence both the risk averse and risk taker are advised to initiate the trade on P3
- Candlesticks portray the traders thought process. One should nurture this thought process as he dwells deeper into the candlestick study
The Support and Resistance (S&R) - setting price targets
The Resistance
Resistance is something which stops the price from rising further. The resistance level is a price point on the chart where traders expect maximum supply (in terms of selling) for the stock/index. The resistance level is always above the current market price. The likely hood of the price rising up to the resistance level, consolidating, absorbing all the supply, and then declining is high.
- The resistance level, indicated by a horizontal line, is higher than the current market price.
- While the resistance level is at 215, the current candle is at 206.75. The current candle and its corresponding price level are encircled for your reference
For a moment let us imagine Ambuja cements at Rs.206 forming a bullish marubuzo with a low of 202. We know this is a signal to initiate a long trade, and we also know that the stoploss for this trade is at 202. With the new found knowledge on resistance, we now know that we can set 215 as a possible target for this trade!
Why 215 you may wonder? The reasons are simple:-
- Resistance of 215 implies there is a likelihood of excess supply
- Excess supply builds selling pressure
- Selling pressure tends to drag the prices lower
Hence for reasons stated above, when a trader is long he can look at resistance points to set targets and to set exit points for the trade.
Also, with the identification of the resistance the long trade can now be completely designed as follows:
Entry -- 206, Stoploss -- 202, and Target -- 215
The identification process is the same for both support and resistance. If the current market price is below the identified point, it is called a resistance point; else it is called a support point.
The Support
As the name suggests, the support is something that prevents the price from falling further. The support level is a price point on the chart where the trader expects maximum demand (in terms of buying) coming into the stock/index. Whenever the price falls to the support line, it is likely to bounce back. The support level is always below the current market price. There is a maximum likely hood that the price could fall till the support, consolidate, absorb all the demand, and then start to move upwards. The support often acts as a trigger to buy.
- The support level, indicated by the horizontal line is below the current market price
- While the support level is at 435, the current candle is at 442.5. The current candle and its corresponding price level are encircled for your reference
Like we did while understanding resistance, let us imagine a bearish pattern formation -- perhaps a shooting star at 442 with a high of 446. Clearly with a shooting star, the call is to short Cipla at 442, with 446 as the stoploss. Since we know 435 the immediate support, we can set the target at 435.
So what makes Rs.435 target worthy? The following reasons back the decision
- Support at 435 implies there is a maximum likely hood of excess demand to emerge
- Excess demand builds buying pressure
- Buying pressure tends to drag the price higher
Hence for the reasons stated above, when a trader is short, he can look at support points to set targets and to set exit points for the trade.
Also, with the identification of the support, the short trade is now completely designed. Entry -- 442, stoploss -- 446, and target -- 435.
- To identify S&R, place a horizontal line in such a way that it connects at least 3 price action zones, well spaced in time. The more number of price action zones (well spaced in time) the horizontal line connects, the stronger is S&R
- S&R can be used to identify targets for the trade. For a long trade, look for the immediate resistance level as target. For a short trade, look for the immediate support level as target.
- Lastly, comply with the checklist for optimal trading results